Monte Carlo and bust...

In project and financial management, there exists a set of sums called the Monte Carlo Simulation. This is an Excel spreadsheet that takes a set of expected minimum and maximum figures for a project, applies a sort of ’randomiser’ and produces a figure where the variables have been taken into account. Neat trick – a fruit machine or a magic 8-ball to work out how much money we are going to spend. Forget surveyors, estimators, management techniques; use a random number generator to come up with a number, and bill the client that. Easy.

In fact, why not tape lots of footage of the Lottery and simply come up with a number based on Lotto balls, where the first number is somewhere within your ‘scientifically devised’ parameters? Alternatively, feed teeny tiny numbered balls the size of corn to pigeons and come up with a number by wiping guano from the pavement of Trafalgar Square. Or a system of tattooed piglets being chased by a particularly hungry and vicious gypsy mob. Or a giant numbered dart board in the shape of Jack Tweed’s face that various strangers get to sneeze or gob on. Closest to the rapist’s mouth wins a prize. It could be a new fairground attraction, or a Channel 5 game show.

I digress. Do we really need to rely on Bill Gates farting random numbers to work out how much our buildings will cost? Is our construction industry forever indebted to Microsoft or controlled by its unerring accuracy? Instead, I suggest a new system. Each project is given a specific figure to work to (let’s call it a ‘budget’) and makes it happen for that. Special personnel are employed to manage that ‘budget’ and make it work – if they don’t, they are sacked. Innovative, eh? On the other hand, we could input all our project figures into Excel and it randomly produce where the bill gets sent. That could prove interesting, and no more scientific or reliable than guesstimating the numbers.